I have invested independently since 2015. For most people, trying to outperform the market is a bad use of time; a low-cost index is the better long-term choice. Below are my current thesis and tools, the principles behind my approach, and the portfolio framework I use as a baseline.
As of July 2026, my thesis on a three-to-five-year horizon is that AI compute buildout compounds, agent-driven software follows, and crypto becomes the settlement layer for machine-to-machine payments.
I built whocalledit.io so anyone can search an investment and find the people who called it early, together with the thesis they gave before it became widely recognised. Try it out — I made it free.
Your method has to grow organically from who you are — your interests, talents, and skills. That is your edge.
Don't try to be what you are not. Choose games in which your particular method has a reason to work.
A portfolio is a live map of your probabilities. Re-weight positions as your picture of reality changes — you can hold A and B at once.
Feelings are linear; opportunities are exponential. The difference between a good opportunity and a great one can be 100×.
I average into weakness and distribute into strength — the more good assets crash, the more bullish I get.
Pay attention to who said what before it happened, not after. Treat after-the-fact explanations with great suspicion.
The best investors often say, "I don't know." And they don't, because nobody does. Be honest and stay in the not-knowing.
The market knows more than you do. You may briefly know something it has not yet priced in, but the window will not stay open for long.
For most people, most of the time, the right move is not picking winners but building structure: a portfolio designed to survive every season of the market. The Dragon Portfolio, based on Artemis Capital's study of a hundred years of market history, is one such framework: roughly equal parts equities, bonds, gold, commodity trend, and long volatility, rebalanced over time.
Start from something like that, and adapt it only where your knowledge, goals, or circumstances give you a genuine reason to deviate.
I apply the framework to my whole net worth, including the net equity in my home and other property. The nine underlying allocations resolve into five equal sleeves.
None of this is investment advice.